m101
m101 on Hacker News
I agree with this sentiment entirely. Too much cheap talk. If you want to talk then you should be taking a position.
Perhaps these models just aren't as good as they say they are. If I had AGI I wouldn't sell the tokens. I think the public is helping them bootstrap to intelligence, but they'll promptly shut the door on our access as soon as they achieve it.
Isn’t this what jev training is supposed to improve? They don’t train on predicting the next token but predicting the distribution of next tokens, or something like that.
so if this was true then why do we need see GPU rental prices increase and openrouter token prices fall, for deepseek and other open models?
It’s a feeling that I got from reading his stuff over the years. Asking the AI just now comes up with a number of examples where he himself admitted to it. I also found him increasingly disingenuous.
I feel like Scott Alexander sacrificed the truth on the alter of status a long time ago
My interpretation of this is something like: if LLMs are to be mega useful token counts need to increase by many orders of magnitude -> broad adoption (and spending) would require token costs to drop by many orders of magnitude -> before the common folk get mega useful tools existing GPUs will be worthless
“However, the new investor presentation shows close to $30bn annualised revenues in July.”
2.5bn in revenue for all of July. That is a disaster.
Squeaky bum time
Eventually, because this guy felt unsafe multiple members of the rest of the camp put their hands up as feeling unsafe. I call it liberal mind virus because of the “safety” focus. A normal person would see small challenges and discomforts as part and parcel of daily life, and they certainly wouldn’t have safety concerns as grown up (mostly) men from a small girl. Everything was also taken out of context too - they all knew her and had camped together for 10+ years. It was basically a group-think public lynching based on some false sense of morality.
I’ll answer here as others asking. It wasn’t me. Basically a friend (a girl) went into someone’s tent (an ex of theirs, a guy) whilst their ex was alone in there. They spent the night together. Seems normal right.. however, that person (the girl) got chucked out of camp because they made the person feel “unsafe” having not asked permission to enter the tent before entering the tent, like at the door or something. Obviously a normal person would assume permission after having spent a night together cuddling, but the (male) person chose to weaponise it the next day, and the camp’s liberal mind virus spread like wildfire thereafter.
Been twice to burning man. It’s hard to describe the corruption of the soul that exists at burning man.
There’s a focus on the environment yet everything is disposable and people travel from all over the world to go.
There’s talk of safety but then they will literally kick you out of camp as soon as someone says you’re making them feel unsafe because of some normal thing you did. YES, it did literally happen to someone I know. It felt like a public lynching.
It’s supposed to be camping together but then there’s pages of rules, documents, charity companies, and letters written by lawyers (yes, still the above).
It’s a celebration in mediocrity. Most things that happen are very mediocre at best. They just do it because you’re supposed to give something, so they give something mediocre.
The people are all hyper liberal, and the types that cannot help but judge individuals based on whether they’re in their group on not. People you called your friends for years will turn against you once the group turns on you.
Obviously most of it is all about seeing and being seen, engaging in the pleasures of sensual experiences on offer.
I would describe it as literally sodom on earth. It’s shaped like a butthole, and takes a massive shit once a year.
The best thing about it imo is the cycling around where you can mostly just get away from the degeneracy that exists. The temple is quite nice too.
Yes very possibly. If you assume your competition will always exist then I think it makes sense to increase prices as they do even if you have the best business model.
OpenAI were initially competing with Anthropic in $ value of tokens, and then number of tokens, and then the 5h limit removal meant you could buy multiple plans for huge continuous usage. This gravy train was never sustainable from a margin perspective and must have cost them billions.
It’s now going to be interesting how anthropic react - 5h limit and retain 15-20x $ value, or go the same was as OpenAI.
I think on the app you should have an auto sort for your local supermarket. I have a list of aisles that I go through on my route around and I ask an ai to sort my shopping list by that route through the supermarket.
Well yes, in reality you want a system where you don’t wait until the lease expires because that would leave many short lease properties without investment. It is trivial to value (competitive real estate market, rational negotiation, market interest rates) a lease extension from 30 to 99 years (enabling development) and the state shouldn’t really care about it unless it wanted to take ownership early as part of a wider land development plan.
The state is technically repossessing it when you own a lease, but it’s not something you had rights to anyway, or had paid for. The terms of what you own are up to the lease end date, under the terms of the lease.
A minority of land is freehold.
LVT and things like market value based taxes are all far more complicated than is what already works, and what Singapore does (and a couple other countries like China): all land owned by the state, sold to private individuals with [99] year leases.
So the revenue comes through in resales once leases end.
Super simple: no valuation (only market sales); no annual expenses to consider (all upfront); development issues are simply a matter for leases to expire; speculation is capped given the capped lease length (although it can still get to stupid valuations).
Implementation is also extremely simple if you’re already onboard with taxation as expropriation: the state just legislates that all property is now a 99 year lease and they own it at that point (alternatively they compensate you 2-5% of market value, and retain existing annual taxes, or cut existing annual taxes to compensate, or they just do it without compensation!)
The main one I was thinking about was in finance when doing lending to corporates. You build a financial model of the company, and then you “stress test” it to see where the company struggles to pay you back by changing a few variables up or down. If it was distributions you’d simply assign distributions to those variables and look at the distribution of outcomes for your loan.
As a number of the comments have suggested there are a number of Monte Carlo methods (including this addin) but I was hoping that someone would make one which calculated based on random variables and output a resultant random variable, over brute force monte carlo. Monte Carlo is also somewhat slow, but doing the maths analytically should be fast.
What would be a revolution in excel is if we could have probability distributions in cells. Right now all spreadsheets are fairly deterministic and we think that tells us something about the real world. Having an ability to make cells distributions (and then all resultant cells would be distributions too) would represent the uncertainty in the world better (and expose lots of interesting things like distributions of tails)
And heavily punish the users (which is the only way to actually win a war on drugs)
A war on drugs can only be won through heavy penalties on the users and the political classes refuse to come down hard on the users (themselves, their children) but rather come down hard on the dealers (poor people) or traffickers (foreigners). For this reason we never really had a war on drugs, just lip service towards one, hence a failure of government.
There is not that much difference between the state and a mafia. The fact that the mafia has successfully managed to keep out fentanyl shows just how much democratically elected states are failing their citizens. This outcome is not surprising.
perhaps they use this as the carrot to get you locked into their monthly plan over anthropic's.
They actually want that to come protect their business model
Funny how they talk so much about safety when most people don’t give a hoot about it, and actually have quite the opposite reaction
A MacBook Pro is probably the best bang for your buck. I have a 64gb m4 max, but you’ll run decent models with half that ram I think.
However bad anthropic’s financials look I’m sure OpenAI’s look even worse