Re:Six Months into Tariffs, Businesses Have No Idea How to P...
by JumpCrisscross on Thursday September 04, 2025 @02:08AM
(#45124087)
> investment in manufacturing is lower than in 2024 (by like 3%), but both 2024 and 2025 (Trump’s presidency) are the highest datapoints in that dataset
Sure, it’s down in ‘25 and has stalled a multi-year trend. The most-recent data show that trend spreading.
> something that’s going to take a decade plus to play out
Won’t get there. One, the policy is changing on a week-to-week basis. And two, there is no bipartisan buy-in to this policy.
The tariffs could have worked were they sensibly implemented. They weren’t. As structured, they are politically and economically infeasible for their aims. (Great if you’re an intermediary, though.)
Also, your second link generally paints a mixed picture, not an outright negative one:
> On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes rose further above their long-run averages. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months.
I think it’s misguided to interpret current data as evidence either for or against the current policies. This is something that’s going to take a decade plus to play out. Trying to use data to call winners 6 months in isn’t really possible.