> LLMs make the easy stuff easier
I think this is the observation that's important right now. If you're an expert that isn't doing a lot of boilerplate, LLMs don't have value to you right now. But they can acceptably automate a sizeable number of entry-level jobs. If those get flushed out, that's an issue, as not everyone is going to be a high-level expert.
Long-term, the issue is we don't know where the ceiling is. Just because OpenAI is faltering doesn't mean that we've hit that ceiling yet. People talk about the scaling laws as a theoretical boundary, but it's actually the opposite. It shows that the performance curve could just keep going up even with brute force, which has never happened before in the history of statistics. We're in uncharted territory now, so there's good reason to keep an eye on it.
That’s a fair take. The reason people dismiss the technology is because the reasonable takes are drowned out by lunatics thinking they’re going to be living in Star Trek in a decade.
i don't understand people who seem to have strongly motivated reasoning to dismiss the new tech as just a token predictor or stochastic parrot. it's confusing the means with the result, it's like saying Deep Blue is just search, it's not actually playing chess, it doesn't understand the game—like that matters to people playing against it.