On the other hand, $10B as valuation (not revenue) just requires a greater fool. Maybe it's possible, but I doubt there are too many of those fools available.
I interpreted the parent as saying $10B valuation.
- There is a moat of doing so (i.e. will people actually pay for your SaaS knowing that they could do it too via AI) and..
- How many large scale ideas do you need post AI? Many SaaS products are subscription based and loaded with features you don't need. Most people would prefer a simple product that just does what they need without the ongoing costs.
There will be more software. The question is who accrues the economic value of this additional software - the SWE/tech industry (incumbent), the AI industry (disruptor?) and/or the consumer. For the SWE's/tech workers it probably isn't what they envisioned when they started/studied for this industry.
I had been thinking of buying an $80 license for a piece of software but ended up knocking off a version in Claude Code over a weekend.
It is not even close to something commercial grade that I could sell as a competitor but it is good enough for me to not spend $80 on the license. The huge upside is that I can customize the software in any way I like. I don't care that it isn't maintainable either. Making a new version in ChagGPT5 is going to be my first project.
Just like a few hours ago I was thinking how I would like to customize the fitness/calorie tracking app I use. There are so many features I like that would be tightly coupled to my own situation and not a mass market product.
This to me seems obvious of what the future of software looks like for everything but mission critical software.
Not trying to argue, since I don’t have counter evidence, but how can you be so sure?