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A comment on Economists made a model of the U.S. economy. Our debt crashed the model. Parent comment

Re:Economists made a model of the U.S. economy. Our debt cra... by rapsey on Thursday July 17, 2025 @07:45AM (#44592223)
That is not true. Markets are moved by traders not economists. Professional traders have a very skeptical view of economists, because economists are simply wrong so often about the future. Economists from the world bank and such institutions are usually on the wrong side of forecasting for instance.

For instance Scott Bessent opinion:

"I will take the market-based indicators over the so-called 'experts' all the time! That’s how I made my 35-year career, was listening to the market."

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Re:Economists made a model of the U.S. economy. Our debt cra... by elif on Thursday July 17, 2025 @08:04AM (#44592376)
The traders are all operating within the windows established by the policy choices of economists using fake money generated by economists to satisfy their own invented metrics.

And traders are not themselves predicting the future as you put it, but they are predicting the future sentiment of other traders.

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Re:Economists made a model of the U.S. economy. Our debt cra... by krona on Thursday July 17, 2025 @08:00AM (#44592342)
Distal causes vs proximate causes.

Sure, you need traders to move the markets, and if that's good enough for Scott Bessent, good for him.

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Re:Economists made a model of the U.S. economy. Our debt cra... by halfcat on Thursday July 17, 2025 @08:23AM (#44592514)
> Markets are moved by traders

And traders are moved by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions

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