true but then it always goes back up 100%...

...which is why its not gonna plunge anymore. too many people have "seen" the pattern now, and the instant it dips even 5% people are gonna be buying "the dip" in droves, thinking this is gonna be their entry, this is their moment in the sun. "I've seen it do this before, I know how it ends, I gotta get in now!!!"

Indeed. And then at some point the sentiment will change. And at that point I hope the crypto and real world are not too intermingled, because it'll get ugly.

its probably intermingled at the highest levels that we couldn't know of. like transferring $100 millions to overseas 'freedom fighters', 'regime change operations', various suchlike endeavours with plausible deniability.

admittedly bit of a conspiracy but its not that far removed surely

I suspect a massive US government bailout will prove something like this.

> true but then it always goes back up 100%...

So far.

It took gold, another popular 'store of value' commodity, several decades to reach its previous peak originally reached in 1980 (blue line):

* https://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/07/CMD_GLDNFLT0711_VF...

There was ~20 years of it not doing much. Then ~10 years post-GFC of it not doing much. A lot of folks are looking at headlines and making long-term conclusions that certain things are inevitable:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias

> ...which is why its not gonna plunge anymore. too many people have "seen" the pattern now […]

And how many times has the 'stock market plunging pattern' have we seen? Does that prevent people from panicking? As someone who has been in /r/PersonalFinanceCanada for many years now, the panicked posts of March-April 2020 were very real.

There is an entire field of study examining how people act badly when it comes to money:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics

People still think they can pick winning stocks and beat the market consistently over the long-term:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street

thats true, but you say that - bitcoin maxis are probably hoping and praying that you're right, that there'll be a free-fall - just so they can buy even more of the damn things LOL

gosh what a clown world, this stuff is so ridiculous.

I feel like we’re in a speculative thought loop. People seem to lose all memory when an asset rises. Every time it goes down people lose their minds and wonder how they could be so stupid to put money in such a risky asset, then it goes up and the same stories come out how it won’t go back down. Never trust investor sentiment online. It’s like taking advice from a drug addicted gambler.