I don't think AGI is right around the corner

Re:I don't think AGI is right around the corner by tshaddox on Sunday July 06, 2025 @08:30PM (#44485492)

If birth rates are as much a cause for concern as many people seem to think, and we absolutely need to solve it (instead of solving, for instance, the fact that the economy purportedly requires exponential population growth forever), perhaps we should hope that AGI comes soon.

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Re:I don't think AGI is right around the corner by otabdeveloper4 on Monday July 07, 2025 @03:27AM (#44487604)

We're not in a stable state now, it's not about population growth, it's about not literally dying out.

With a birth rate of 1 population will halve every generation. This is an apocalyptic scenario and incompatible with industrial civilization.

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Re:I don't think AGI is right around the corner by tshaddox on Monday July 07, 2025 @02:22PM (#44493223)

I am worried about what will happen to various nations' economies relatively soon, long before the population actually halves, but I'm not worried that the fertility rate would continue on its trend as demographics change. Ignoring the potential second-order effects of economic collapse, wars over resources, etc., I think fertility rate would stabilize given that culture and genetics would by definition quickly become dominated by the people who do reproduce.

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Re:I don't think AGI is right around the corner by otabdeveloper4 on Tuesday July 08, 2025 @09:44AM (#44499911)

> culture and genetics would by definition quickly become dominated by the people who do reproduce

Yeah, but in how many generations? Four, five? That's a lot of collapse before we get to that point.

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