Where did my math go wrong? I got about 50,000 megatons. Assuming the high-end of 22km and a rocky/metallic density of 5000 kg/cubic meter (and assuming it's a cube):
kinetic energy = 1/2 m v**2 = 1/2 * size * density * v**2
= 1/2 *(22000 m)**3 * (5000 kg/m**3) * (90 m/s)**2 / (4.184E15 J/megaton)
= 52,000 megaton
If it's an icy comet then the density is more like 500 kg/cubic meter, or 1/10th that number.
Re:Third Interstellar Object Discovered
by perihelions on Thursday July 03, 2025 @03:27AM
(#44452526)
I can not confirm this; the parent calculation is the correct one. I can't immediately find what your error was. (edit: It's your [km/s]—you wrote [m/s] by mistake).
(let* ((ρ ([g (cm -3)] 5))
(d ([km] 22))
(m (* ρ (expt d 3)))
(v ([km (s -1)] 90))
(ke (* 1/2 m (expt v 2)))
(kg-tnt ([J (kg -1)] 4.2e6)))
(values (/ ke kg-tnt)
(as [megaton] (/ ke kg-tnt))))
5.133857142857142e19 [KG]
5.133857142857143e10 [MEGATON]My mistaken use of m/s instead of km/s, in a squared term, indeed gives a HUGE difference.
Thanks!
Re:Third Interstellar Object Discovered
by nandomrumber on Thursday July 03, 2025 @03:23AM
(#44452505)
1040 x more energy that the Tsar Bomba.
Or 5-ish Tsar Bomba per country on Earth.
Or 3466 Hiroshima nukes.
Or 17 Hiroshima nukes per country.
Re:Third Interstellar Object Discovered
by nandomrumber on Thursday July 03, 2025 @03:38AM
(#44452589)
In light of the error in the parent comments math, I retract my previous comment and substitute the following bit of awkward silence:
…
We all make mistakes, as the Dalek said climbing off the dustbin.
FWiW .. here's mine (or is it?)
One Tsar Bomba ~ 50 megatonne. One Hiroshima bomb ~ 15 kilotonne.
One Tsar Bomba ~ 50,000 / 15 ~ 3,333 Hiroshima bombs.
1,040 x Tsar Bomba ~ 3,466,667 Hiroshima bombs.
Re:Third Interstellar Object Discovered
by nandomrumber on Thursday July 03, 2025 @04:28AM
(#44452885)
Oops.
Every time I see your username I can’t help but say it in my mind as Defrost Kelly, some kind of frozen Dr. Leonard "Bones" McCoy
Imagine how I feel every time I see "Dalek" instead of my surname.
90 m/s?
Way too slow, it's more like 70km/s (or 90) - seems you left out a k.
Yes, that was my error - thanks!
Re:Third Interstellar Object Discovered
by Voultapher on Thursday July 03, 2025 @01:11PM
(#44457170)
Based on the corrected 90 km/s instead of m/s it should be 52 pt (peta-ton) impact.
Let's see if I get this math right.
Mauna Loa is about 95,000 km3 in volume says https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-kea/science/geology-and... .
95000 km3 * (1000m/km)**3 * 5kg/m3 = ~5E14 = 1/2 pt.
Nope, I can't conceive of that much energy.
If we could steer it to hit one of Mars’s poles, it might do a bit of terraforming for us!