No, this is not the reason. The numbers that get fanfare are the preliminary BLS numbers. BLS collects data through surveys. Preliminary data are published with incomplete responses. As more employers respond, the numbers get updated.
Guess which employers tend to report late? Those that are doing lots of hiring and firing. So the stable numbers come in first. Then the volatile numbers later. This is well documented, happens on the way up and down, and is constantly (and wrongly) quoted as a partisan conspiracy going both ways.
Preliminary reports always underplay the direction of the change
Because the data have been going in one direction recently. When the job market booms, the revisions are upwards. Then everyone gets to wax lyrical about how BLS is socking the President.
summary of mean revision for seasonally adjusted numbers, since 2003 are
2nd-1st: 8
3rd-2nd: 2
1st-3rd: 10
but 2025 has been consistently, so far, be negative revisions. Dec 2024 has some positive revisions but 2023-2024 on the whole was negative while 2017-2022 were on the whole positive revision. so I dont think that there is data to support consistently wrong in one direction.
Anyone want to take bets on how the revisions will go on this?
Look, yet another stellar jobs report from the B of L today, completely at odds with the actual metrics of the ADP report. CNN reports it as "The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%"
ROFL. Good god.
The US has never had so incompetent, criminal and malicious of a government. Ever. It is full-bore idiocracy now, with absolutely in the open criminality. It isn't a "conspiracy", we know with utter fact that this cabal of Fox News halfwits and self-dealing creeps are liars. The orange felon rapist charity-thief quite explicitly thought the solution to COVID was simply to stop testing for it. US climate measurements have been annihilated because global warming doesn't exist if you don't test for it.
This is not normal. If you need to comfort yourself by pretending it is, that's just spectacularly sad.