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A comment on Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase. Parent comment

Re:Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations ... by slashdev on Wednesday July 02, 2025 @08:03PM (#44450165)
The numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction. It could be that there are other things going on, but simply that volatile numbers come in later doesn’t seem to explain the bias.
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Re:Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations ... by s1artibartfast on Wednesday July 02, 2025 @09:48PM (#44450842)
Yes it does. It firms are consistently firing , the preliminary data will always be better and then revised down.

Preliminary reports always underplay the direction of the change

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Re:Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations ... by JumpCrisscross on Wednesday July 02, 2025 @11:59PM (#44451503)
> numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction

Because the data have been going in one direction recently. When the job market booms, the revisions are upwards. Then everyone gets to wax lyrical about how BLS is socking the President.

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Re:Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations ... by eigen on Thursday July 03, 2025 @12:26AM (#44451623)
> The numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction.

summary of mean revision for seasonally adjusted numbers, since 2003 are

2nd-1st: 8

3rd-2nd: 2

1st-3rd: 10

but 2025 has been consistently, so far, be negative revisions. Dec 2024 has some positive revisions but 2023-2024 on the whole was negative while 2017-2022 were on the whole positive revision. so I dont think that there is data to support consistently wrong in one direction.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm

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Re:Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations ... by llm_nerd on Thursday July 03, 2025 @11:38AM (#44456161)
Yet another B of L stellar job report just dropped. Once again "higher than expected" jobs.

Anyone want to take bets on how the revisions will go on this?

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