But I would expect this to eventually reach an equilibrium where you are at "maximum uncertainty" with respect to your coarse graining. Does that sound right at all? And if so, then there must be something else responsible for the global arrow of time, right?
> If you set the collision probability to zero it's time reversible even with molecular chaos
Is this true for boring reasons? If nothing interacts then you just have a bunch of independent particles in free motion, which is obviously time-reversible. And also obviously satisfies molecular chaos because there are no correlations whatsoever. Maybe I misunderstand the terminology.
Chaos isn't even necessary, it just gets you there faster.
The collisionless case is that way for boring reasons: the map aligns with the coarse graining.