Meaning someone paying $200 monthly is going to use it as much as possible to get their money's worth.

I slightly disagree.

My hypothesis would be that the distribution for $200 users would be bimodal.

That is there would be a one concentration of super heavy power users.

The second concentration would be of people who want the "best AI" but are not power users and feel that most expensive -> the best.

Their actual usage would be just like normal free tier of ChatGPT.