Simple, I bother to subtract all the time LLMs have wasted by giving me fake leads and lying to me from the time it saves when it successfully generates a few lines of code

Having intermittently given in to the hype and tried whatever is supposedly latest and greatest, it without fail goes like this. I’ve even on occasion deceived myself into thinking I’ve finally hit on the right way to use these tools, only to realize in retrospect that under a complete accounting, the time spent to reach that productive mode of working in no way generalizes, so must be paid effectively every time.

This right here. Every time I talk to someone claiming 2-4x multipliers, after a few rounds of conversation they eventually admit "yeah you have to learn when to stop when it's no longer productive, you get a feel for when it's veering into wasting your time".

It can't be both. It can't be 2-4x multiplier _and_ be wasting your time to the extent that you have to "get a feel for when it has been wasting your time".

Sometimes I try to do stuff with AI. Results are mixed. Sometimes it's somewhat helpful. Sometimes it's a complete waste of time. Maybe that means I'm holding it wrong. In the end, it's probably a wash for me. Maybe slightly positive.

I don't understand these people that are saying they are getting huge value from LLMs. I haven't put a ton of effort into figuring out how to "hold it right" because stuff is changing so fast still. I've had bad experiences with rabbit holes like this where the true believers will tell me the pot of gold is always right around the next corner. If and when I can get some positive value out it using whatever's easily available on the default, then I might investigate deeper.

My experience mostly consists of GPT and Copilot, as provided by my employer. I'm part of a pilot program to evaluate Copilot. My feedback is that it's slightly positive in agggregate, but individual results are very mixed. It's not worth much to me.