I basically agree with you also, but I have a somewhat contrarian view of scaling -> brick wall. I feel like applications of powerful local models is stagnating, perhaps because Apple has not done a good job so far with Apple Intelligence.

A year ago I expected a golden age of local model intelligence integrated into most software tools, and more powerful commercial tools like Google Jules to be something used perhaps 2 or 3 times a week for specific difficult tasks.

That said, my view of the future is probably now wrong, I am just saying what I expected.