Re:AI: Accelerated Incompetence
by moooo99 on Wednesday May 28, 2025 @08:16AM
(#44115197)
> Google and Meta also boast publicly +30% of new lines of code are AI-generated in their companies today.
Both are companies with heavy investment into their AI products, hence an extremely biased view. I’d take that with a huge grain of salt.
> assume in 5 years these AIs are 10x better... I simply cannot foresee a world
Over the last 3ish years the improvements to the performance were significant, but incremental. What makes you think that the models will continue to improve at a substantially faster rate than today? Especially considering past releases have already demonstrated the diminishing returns with larger models and more computational power. Then there is also the pressure on the training data: downwards quality as well as ongoing litigation. From my POV there is more reason to believe the future development of LLMs will slow down somewhat rather than accelerate significantly.
Both are companies with heavy investment into their AI products, hence an extremely biased view. I’d take that with a huge grain of salt.
> assume in 5 years these AIs are 10x better... I simply cannot foresee a world
Over the last 3ish years the improvements to the performance were significant, but incremental. What makes you think that the models will continue to improve at a substantially faster rate than today? Especially considering past releases have already demonstrated the diminishing returns with larger models and more computational power. Then there is also the pressure on the training data: downwards quality as well as ongoing litigation. From my POV there is more reason to believe the future development of LLMs will slow down somewhat rather than accelerate significantly.