"Flash is always going to have a place on the desktop"

What for? Any developer for Flash now sees the sign on the wall. It will not die off, but it will become niche/irrelevant.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/243529/the_beginning_of_the_e...

"The things Adobe is working on for desktops--advanced 3D gaming and premium copy-protected video--already exist in mobile through native apps and HTML5. As mobile and desktop platforms merge, Flash Player will get overtaken."

There's still things you can do in Flash that can't be achieved in HTML5, so until there's the ability to layer ad's in videos effectively for YouTube or strap DRM into the streams Flash will be a goto choice.

Div with opacity <1 , that is an overlay, isn't it?

One of my friends who made a living as Flash consultant for about a decade - he has transitioned - last year, he had one Flash project - the rest were HTML5

Ask your local webdev. Restaurant owners love Flash. They insist on it.

Actually, while doing some research (for a MMOT class) I was told by several of the local web shops that their customers are finally "getting" it, and now worry about usability, Google positioning, etc.

Most of their customers are people that had their first page made by a friend, nephew, acquaintance, cheap freelancer - and now realize that nobody uses it and that people don't find them on Google.