I know many moderates and independents who watched the GOP primaries, and concluded that Romney would probably be OK despite saying things that frightened them, on the theory that he was just saying those things to appeal to the tea party. The tea party voters are more active in the primaries than the mainstream GOP voters, especially in the early states, and so you have to show some crazy if you want to win primaries.

Once the nomination was assured, they thought, we'd see the Romney you'd expect from his record.

Picking Ryan shows that assumption was incorrect. Ryan's anti-science beliefs, and his budget plan that is based on magic rather than economics or data, shows Romney is still courting the tea party. I find this puzzling, as those people are not going to vote for Obama. Some might vote for Johnson, or write in Ron Paul, but those have already ruled out Romney and no VP pick is going to get them away from Johnson or Paul (well, Johnson or Paul as Romney's VP might have, but that was not on the table).

This is going to cost him with the moderates and independents. He should have picked Tim Pawlenty or Jon Huntsman.