No. Software development is here to stay, they just will not be writing much software.

Even before AI much of software development was managing overseas teams.

Not everywhere in the globe, the difference now is that those overseas teams can be reduced as well, as we outsource their work into AI managed systems.

I don't know whether they will be or they won't be, but 10 years from now all the employed ones will be using LLMs.

Yes, the difference, like on those factories is that instead of the 100 that were on site when the trucks arrived at the factory, there will be 10 of them left.

I have a lot of uncertainty about the number of professional software developers there will be in the long run, but not about whether they'll be using LLMs.

Yeah, but the number matters to many folks that instead being given the opportunity to use LLMs, will be queueing to get something to work on instead.

It's not clear if the overall number of needed software developers will decrease or simply stop growing. The amount of software necessary in the future will only keep growing. Using the same folks to produce more is a large possibility. I imagine it will take decades to see a shrinking workforce that meaningfully displaces many existing software developers.