This is overlooking the massive capital that's been invested in the part of the 33 months...
Which alters the doubling timeline significantly.
Re:Deep Learning, Deep Scandal
by kartoffelmos on Tuesday April 08, 2025 @03:21AM
(#43619174)
Considering the capital burn rate here, I suspect that waiting years between iterations will be a hard pill to swallow for investors.
GPT-2 to GPT-3: February 2019 to June 2020 = 16 months.
GPT-3 to GPT-4: June 2020 to March 2023 = 33 months.
Looks like time to get to the next level is doubling. So we can expect GPT-5 sometime June 2028.
Feels like people are being premature about claiming AI winter or that it is somehow a scandal that we don't already have GPT-5.
It's going to take time. We need some more patience in this industry.