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A comment on U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on Wall Street. Parent comment

Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by SpicyLemonZest on Sunday April 06, 2025 @07:46PM (#43606022)
I genuinely think a Great Depression sized 90% reduction is plausible. If the Trump administration somehow makes a trusted ironclad commitment that they will never ever reduce the tariffs, but doesn't actually convince anyone that the tariffs are good, the market will still expect Congress or the next administration to reduce them. And thus capital investments will still be largely impossible in any sector exposed to them. (Even if your investment isn't directly exposed, can you be confident that Trump won't blow it up on some other quixotic crusade?)
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by TaurenHunter on Sunday April 06, 2025 @09:01PM (#43606405)
Europe and other exporting countries will capitulate before that or face depression before the US. In a trade war, the exporting countries are at greater disadvantage. They need the dollars so they keep exporting and there are no other markets as big as the US to sell to.
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by triceratops on Sunday April 06, 2025 @11:28PM (#43607341)
> They need the dollars

For what?

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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by bitmasher9 on Sunday April 06, 2025 @11:52PM (#43607471)
Europe needs money for importing energy. This is a life-or-death sort of thing, given how cold it gets in some European countries. Europe also imports large amounts of electronics and machinery.
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by triceratops on Monday April 07, 2025 @12:00AM (#43607524)
> Europe needs money for importing energy

And they can't pay with their own currencies? If they import from other countries, that is?

> Europe also imports large amounts of electronics and machinery

From the US? Would their other vendors terribly mind taking Euros instead?

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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by TaurenHunter on Monday April 07, 2025 @12:38AM (#43607755)
The global energy market uses the U.S. dollar for pricing and settling transactions since the 70s - the "petrodollar" system.

If they EU push hard for it, they may get someone like Norway to accept Euros.

However, there are energy contracts locked into dollar-based pricing and many exporters need dollars because they hold dollar-based debt, buy goods in dollars or have a currency peg.

For them to accept the relatively unappealing Euros they might ask for a premium to offset conversion costs or risks.

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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by triceratops on Monday April 07, 2025 @12:51AM (#43607827)
But now everyone has the same problem getting dollars because everyone's got tariffs. The EU and their non-American suppliers. If said suppliers need dollars to pay back dollar-based debts, and those debtors aren't in the US, then they are also tariffed. Maybe they're all open to re-denominating debts and contracts in a currency that is easier to obtain and spend.
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by TaurenHunter on Monday April 07, 2025 @01:27AM (#43608051)
Sure, there is a greater incentive now to depart the dollar system.

But that would be a monumental shift and the path to that goal is a nightmare with all kinds of challenges.

Rewiring the entire system would take a decade or more.

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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by kavalg on Monday April 07, 2025 @01:53AM (#43608217)
The last time trading oil with other currencies was on the table, a couple of dictators lost their heads.
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by Palmik on Monday April 07, 2025 @12:06AM (#43607560)
Perfect time to accelerate de-dollarization!
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by SpicyLemonZest on Sunday April 06, 2025 @09:12PM (#43606470)
Capitulate on what? Trump's senior trade advisor was on TV earlier today saying that the tariffs are not subject to negotiation and seemingly rejecting Vietnam's offer to zero out all their tariffs on the US. Trump himself has repeatedly stated that he thinks tariffs are good for the US and plans to keep them as long as there are trade deficits. Is there any reason to believe that there's some set of policy concessions the EU could make tomorrow that would convince the Trump administration to drop tariffs?
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by bitmasher9 on Sunday April 06, 2025 @11:53PM (#43607485)
If the concern is trade deficit then buying more imports would be the capitulation.
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by Tadpole9181 on Monday April 07, 2025 @12:53AM (#43607844)
Are you seriously suggesting that countries will just force their citizens to buy products they can't afford and don't want? Especially democratic nations? Seriously?
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by TaurenHunter on Monday April 07, 2025 @01:28AM (#43608061)
Why don't you steelman the argument instead of using the most uncharitable interpretation possible?
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by Tadpole9181 on Monday April 07, 2025 @02:00AM (#43608272)
If the parent is saying that other countries can compromise by "importing more" until the trade deficit is fixed, there is no alternative to my statement. That is the argument being made. The government of that country would need to require it's citizens to purchase US goods regardless of their will or ability or need.

That's how buying things works.

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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by SpicyLemonZest on Monday April 07, 2025 @02:17AM (#43608371)
I reject the idea that it's my job to come up with a good implementation of an idea I don't support. I'm not on board with "buying more imports would be the capitulation" precisely because I can't imagine any sensible way EU regulators could achieve that. You could nibble at the edges and make the beef lobby happy, but the Trump administration's belief that trade deficits are necessarily caused by bad regulation which could be repealed is just wrong.
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by bitmasher9 on Monday April 07, 2025 @09:22AM (#43611100)
I’m not suggesting that anyone actually do it. I’m suggesting that it maybe what the Trump administration is looking for.
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by Tadpole9181 on Monday April 07, 2025 @09:31AM (#43611229)
Ah, gotcha. Apologies for not reading usernames, I thought you were the grandparent!
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by BobaFloutist on Monday April 07, 2025 @10:57AM (#43612264)
What imports though? What the fuck is China supposed to do, buy 200,000,000,000 cases of scotch?
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Re:U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on W... by bitmasher9 on Monday April 07, 2025 @04:52PM (#43615816)
It wouldn’t be the first time a president played the roll of Boeing salesman.
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