I’m curious what your evidence is that this is happening. And has it happened before with other models in a noticeable level such as this?

Do tell, what is the rational way to discuss a company whose only visible top officer rants about about a "Woke Mind Virus" and simulatenously runs 3 other companies and an entire government department?

Yes, the author of the fucking article was the first to acknowledge that. There's a lengthy section on it. It starts with this relevant statement: "Tesla fans are holding on to the idea that this is not a real problem because it is mostly due to the Model Y changeover"... and continues "but that’s simply not true."

For your hypothesis to be true you'd see falling Model y numbers but somewhat steady Model 3 numbers, since that was refreshed only in 2023 and is in no danger of getting a new refresh.

That is not the case. I took a look at the German numbers for Januaries 2025 and 2024 and Model 3 fell proportionally the same as Model Y in the YoY numbers:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43027039

Numbers are rational, are they?