That's the first time I've seen a decent argument about why it might matter.

But I'd still say "no, it doesn't matter", because the risk arguments for future pandemics due to each cause remain as they were in the absence of Covid:

• Labs doing safety wrong was already a thing, and this is worth improving because they still are

• Wet markets were already known to be a pandemic risk, and still are

Considered a different way, we may get multiple future pandemics from both sources.

Two independent Poisson distributions going forward is more important than one single Bayesian inference of the past.

I think it matters for several reasons but I think the opportunity to ever really know with a high degree of certainty has long gone.

Sure does. If it leaked from a lab, media and Republicans can build a narrative that Trump was not at fault for his poor handling of the pandemic.

Trump's poor handling of the pandemic was poor regardless of origin. People need to be continually reminded that Trump's ineptitude resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans.

Yes, but a lab leak conspiracy theory lets him off the hook - how could he anticipate such a heinous act? Republicans will use a lab leak to memory-hole Trump's magical thinking about the pandemic.

The Trump administration doesn't need a lab leak (theory or evidence) to rewrite history. They rebranded Jan 6 as a heroic act of patriotism without any kind of evidence to support their claims.

Propaganda doesn't need facts or even logic to back it up. Propaganda just needs people willing to believe it or do nothing to fight it.

It matters and the author's guidance for mitigating future immense risk is welcome.