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Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by kubb on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @04:10AM (#43330272)
What they did wrong was picking the candidate - she wasn’t popular. It wasn’t the time to try this kind of candidate, but they did it because of their own priorities. It’s OK, they won’t learn.

Democrats need to start nominating famous actors and influencers.

Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by ReptileMan on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @04:31AM (#43330371)
They had all of Hollywood this year and quite a lot of nonpolitcal content creators came out for Harris in the last days.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by cwillu on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @04:52AM (#43330487)
Having hollywood endorse a candidate is not the same as having hollywood be a candidate.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by ReptileMan on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @06:07AM (#43330905)
And who is the mythical hollywood figure untainted by the culture war that could pull voters from the other side. The only thing you have to do with any hollywood celebrity to thank their presidential campaign is just post screenshots of their Covid and BLM tweets. And if they don't have stupid Covid and BLM tweets then they will have antisemitic ones.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by DrFalkyn on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @10:43PM (#43339436)
Bill Maher
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by BeFlatXIII on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @02:48PM (#43335758)
Your point restated, nobody cares about endorsements.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by Mountain_Skies on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @06:20AM (#43330994)
Michael Bloomberg already tried the "hey, I'm like that guy but without the wrong think" xerox strategy and it didn't go well. Mark Cuban has toyed with it too but keeps getting cold feet, maybe due to lack of confidence or maybe due to analysis that shows being Them-Lite rarely works.

Trump's reality tv show is not a major part of what got him elected but if someone wants to fund and convince Mark Cuban to try a doppelganger campaign, a fool and his money are soon parted. Cuban seems to know better than to try with his own fortune.

Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by kubb on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @06:24AM (#43331006)
If Cuban ran against Kamala he wouldn’t even have to campaign.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by ipaddr on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @08:29AM (#43331764)
Cuban would have done much better against Trump. Any white southern male would have but Cuban might have pulled in Texas.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by AnimalMuppet on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @09:48AM (#43332412)
Their mistake was much more basic than that. They kept assuming that they could re-run Biden until it was too late for a switch to work.

When they did decide to switch, it had to be Harris, because she was the only one who could legitimately claim to use Biden's election funds, and they didn't have time to raise money for anyone else.

From there, they didn't fix the other mistake - the one Democrats have been making for at least a decade. The Democrats' natural constituency is the working class. They can't win without it. But much of the working class is rather socially conservative. The Democrats have spent the last decade telling working class people that if they, the working class, don't think gay marriage is a good idea, or don't think trans people belong on womens' sports teams and in womens' restrooms, or aren't comfortable with abortion, then they are moral lepers and their entire culture needs to be completely eradicated. Well, the natural result is that at least some of those people are going to flip you the bird and vote for the other guy. Democrats wonder "how could people be so stupid?" I ask, "How could you be so stupid? What did you think was going to happen?"

Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by adastra22 on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @10:30AM (#43332804)
They didn't "have" to run anybody. They could've, and should've gone with someone else. Everyone knew when Harris was selected that the Democrats had lost. The DNC tried to turn that sentiment around, but they started from a losing position and never recovered. There were alternatives...
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by pjc50 on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @11:11AM (#43333265)
> don't think gay marriage is a good idea

That's the culture war of a decade ago: Obergefell v Hodges was in 2015.

Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by AnimalMuppet on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @12:37PM (#43334250)
And Roe v Wade was in 1973. That that war didn't end then, though.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by kubb on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @01:29PM (#43334930)
The gay and trans thing was a wedge issue pushed by Republicans, because they saw that it worked, and the only way Dems could have appeased the riled up masses would be to straight up start oppressing LGBT people.

I don't hold it against them that they didn't budge on this one. Beating up on a minority for political points is morally repugnant, and the whole appeal of Democrats is that they have some kind of integrity.

The "moral lepers" thing feels to me like a distortion of reality. The actual Democratic politicians generally didn't engage in denigrating their base. Maybe you mean people on the disgusting website.

Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by wessex on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @03:37PM (#43336220)
It was picked as a wedge issue but the Republicans chose very wisely, as the Democrats' incessant pushing of trans issues without any consideration towards the negative impact upon women and girls was unpopular even amongst many traditionally left-leaning voters.
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by kubb on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @04:32PM (#43336707)
If you mean that the Democrats' policy of supporting transgender rights through legislation was hard to defend (not from a scientific or medical standpoint, but from a populist, political one) and Trump effectively attacked it then yes you're right.

If you mean that the messaging on trans rights alienated swing voters then I think it's probably true, but moderates and swing voters do support general anti-discrimination laws but are wary of policies on sports participation and youth medical care.

If you mean that it was the centerpiece of their identity and everything that were campaigning for, and their pivotal, most important issue, then I don't think that's accurate.

But they did deliberately elevate transgender rights as a moral and civil rights issue. This was a trade off (energize progressives, lose some moderates). Conservatives effectively focused on targeted attacks (bathrooms, sports).

I think that maybe the gamble didn't pay off. The messaging should have probably been about protecting from discrimination, and debate should be focused on attacking republican establishment for being aggressive and hateful.

But really all of this doesn't matter. A better candidate, a white or latino strong charismatic man would have beaten Trump.

Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by wruza on Wednesday March 12, 2025 @01:06AM (#43340119)
Exactly my thoughts even as a complete outsider. Democrats seem to became overconfident in their own internet agenda and forgot that most people at least don’t care and on average just tolerate. Through years it seems that tolerance (which we just learned is the normal mode of operation within diverse groups) turned into mandatory praising and hitler if you don’t.

The inconvenient thing is, average people are -phobic naturally or historically. That’s just the fact of life. Tolerance, the conscious inhibition of natural processes, is a good-enough contract that keeps them away from negativity, but you cannot tell everyone they are hitler if they feel otherwise, as opposed to act against. That’s bullshit and emotional hegemony. Some of the left figures (can’t name, just echoing some clips) even explicitly enjoyed disturbing these phobias. It all seemed like contrasting mockery rather than integration. I understand that most of it was addressed at far right, but you can’t target them with such negativity without affecting the rest as well.

How could you be so stupid? What did you think was going to happen?

I think they only gained more momentum. They would do so with or without Trump winning because they demonstrate levels of illusion far beyond all return points. They are de-platforming, de-employing people, ostracizing their own people who dare to speak any sort of reasonable thought, and they cheer after doing so. Do you really think they can pause and reflect? It almost feels like US needs a third force that isn’t hitler or hitler and cares about just normal society.

Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by AnimalMuppet on Wednesday March 12, 2025 @09:38AM (#43343142)
Oh, I would love to have a third force. Both sides are moving to extremes, and the bulk of the population is not extreme in either direction, and just want some sanity instead of extremism. A large majority is there for the taking. Will someone wake up and take it?
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up." by rurp on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @05:34PM (#43337260)
This pretty much covers it. Harris ran a terrible campaign in 2020 and was never popular. Biden picked her anyway, against his better judgement, because that was what the Left wanted and he was trying to appease them. His disastrous decision to run again for so long left the party with no other options.

Harris tried to correct some of her past mistakes and did better this time around but she should have never been in that position to begin with. Most of the blame should go to Biden and the activists who want to self-immolate the party on the altar of tokenism.