Firstly, most users aren't going to actively try and bypass the restrictions. Secondly, most users aren't going to know that they need to right click, open "Show package contents", understand the .app file structure, browse to the binary and open it from there.
As little protection as that is, I think it could make a dent against trojans. If there were enough trojans to measure, that is.
Let's assume Apple will only very rarely abuse their power (In fact I guess they won't abuse it at all, but for the sake of the argument let's assume they do.)Then running unsigned apps with a right-click is still possible, but the user will be much more aware as this is almost never required. He will therefore actually read what the dialog says and not be trained to ignore it.
In fact, that is what makes this approach different to UAC in Windows and likely to succeed: UAC came up too often and users learned to ignore it. It is already very clear to me that Gatekeeper is rapidly adopted by developers. (By the way I also think Apple has whitelisted many sufficiently outdated applications since I get the "Open" button for some of them even if they are unsigned. But maybe this is also just a bug.)
However, I see no reason to give Apple the benefit of the doubt here. They have been abusive since the moment they first had the idea of restricting what their users could run on their own hardware. Given that history, I'll assume abuse until proven otherwise.
I will fil a Tor bug report, right now, requesting Gatekeeper support.
Let's see ... :)
I have not received feedback, yet, but will monitor this closely.
The fact is that Gatekeeper is not designed to protect against malware in ALL cases. It is designed to make it easier for ordinary users in MOST cases to protect against malware.