Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market

Re:Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market by Starlord2048 on Friday March 07, 2025 @12:07PM (#43291907)

500 years ago, betting on the Pope was punishable by excommunication. Today, crypto-powered prediction markets are placing odds on the next conclave. Have we come full circle, or has technology fundamentally changed the ethics of speculation? Should there be limits to what we can bet on, or is ”information price discovery“ an absolute good？

Are decentralized prediction markets a net positive for transparency, or are they just incentivizing bad behavior?

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Re:Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market by cxie on Friday March 07, 2025 @12:10PM (#43291926)

I've been thinking about prediction market designs that could preserve information discovery benefits while minimizing harm - maybe through delayed settlement periods, anti-manipulation mechanisms, or separating financial stakes from informational ones.

As web3 and DeFi make these markets more accessible and resistant to regulation, should we be building more guardrails into the protocols themselves? Or is this an unsolvable tension in market design?

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Re:Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market by erelong on Friday March 07, 2025 @02:31PM (#43293519)

Didn't read this article but one of them I think said the 1917 Code of Canon Law removed the excommunication for this kind of gambling.

Gambling itself within reason I think was not condemned ("Gambling" in Catholic encyclopedia): https://www.newadvent.org/cathen/06375b.htm

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