Sequence of events -
Trump downplays the need for security guarantees. "Security is maybe 2% of the problem, security is the easy part, I'm worried about getting the deal done."
A "reporter" from OAN asks a kiss-ass question that can be summarized as "President Trump, how amazing and courageous are you for negotiating with Putin?"
Trump gives a rambling answer including his usual vague statements of how the war wouldn't have existed if he'd been in power and then starts talking about Hamas for some reason.
There's a moment of levity where Trump says Zelensky's attire is fine.
Zelensky indicates he wants to respond to some of the earlier statements. He says Russia has broken many promises made in past negotiations and this is why security guarantees are actually critical to Ukraine.
"Reading the room" in this situation would mean "buying into the Putin-led narrative currently being peddled by the Trump administration."
Fuck that.
Zelensky correctly recognizes that appeasing bullies does not make the bullying stop. At best, it slightly delays the bullying.
Much of the US population desperately needs to reach the same recognition.
Emotional thinking and platitudes about "bullies" are not really applicable here. You have to think about the eventualities that we could be affected by if things go sideways, and with the current set of characters in Ukraine, they most definitely will, and soon.
Here's John Mearsheimer telling you _exactly_ what was going to happen, in 2015: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
As if taking the hundreds of nuclear red lines Putin has laid down and allowed to be crossed without a nuclear response, isn't "emotional thinking".
No one in that room recognized more than Zelensky that worthlessness of American promises of security. What value then to humiliate oneself? Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal on American promises of security, and look where that got them.
On the contrary, the display in the press conference did do some good for Ukraine. There was an emergency summit in London that weekend where the heads of Europe agreed to step up their support for Ukraine, increase defence spending, and to work towards total independence from the US in 10 years. NATO is now a vestigial treaty that's a foreign policy option rather than a commitment. Who's responsible now for pushing us closer to WW3?
Living 200km from the Russian border, I worry that 10 years is far too long. If Putin “reads the room”, he knows his best bet is to push things forward before the midterms. In case Tramp doesn’t manage to rig the elections.
So militarily, we might have less than 2 years.
I really, really, really hope I’m wrong.
From analysts I follow, the feeling is that EU support will sustain Ukraine at least through 2025, with the greatest weakness being ammunition for Patriot and GLMRS systems (though thankfully those have decreased in importance as drones take over). And 2026 is when the cumulative damage to Russia's economy really snowballs. If Ukraine makes it through 2025, I'm relatively optimistic.
My great fear in 2024 was the flagging support for Ukraine due to war-weariness and lack of a resolution, would push some parties towards a more passive, accommodationist outcome. We can thank Trump for this: the fire to see Ukraine win has been lit again.
Slava Ukraini, my friend. Stay safe.
Zelensky flew to Washington to sign the agreement, and fully expected to--they waited an hour after the blown up press conference before being told to get out. Diplomatically, Zelensky wasn't even badly behaved in the press conference. Vance and Trump kept escalating the discussion. If there was a play, it was one constructed by Trump to give himself a reason to withdraw aid from Ukraine when he clearly wants to side with Putin.