Yes, and then the US will force its way. It's quite funny that you even mentioned nukes. Taiwan did attempt to build nukes and the US destroyed the project.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/01/asia/taiwan-cia-informant...
US loves Taiwan so much, they won't allow them to build independence and rely less on US provided security.
We “destroyed” it inasmuch as we said we won’t be friends if you do this. We didn’t threaten to invade.
America has resisted geopolitical balancing to date because we resisted the temptation of realpolitik. America’s allies are, on average, richer and more peaceful than her enemies. That’s now beginning to change. For the first time in modern history, we may see a system of alliances emerge that credibly counter American economic and military might.
During the cold war, there were certainly planners in the west that thought the west would loose a conflict.
So maybe not the first time.
Unless its leaders and ruling class are owned by US. It wouldn't be the first time US is directing some puppet governments.
Most of us like the US. And we knowingly elect politicians who will promote a good relationship with the US.
The thing about US "vassel" states is they don't have to do what the US says. And sometimes won't!
It's a classic Russian talking point that Ukraine has no agency. You're making the same argument for Taiwan.
Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like. They could build nukes. They could opt to do nothing and run the risk of invasion.
It's a democracy, Taiwan has agency. Even if, they have good reasons to make friends with the US.