> By scaring Europe into re-militarizing, that is bad for Russia.

Any anti-Russian benefit that has is dwarfed by the pro-Russian benefit of having a wedge driven between the US and Europe, which is what is happening. Even a Europe that invests more heavily is defense is far less scary to Russia than the threat of US military power, especially in the short to medium term. The US has military capability that will be difficult for anyone to recreate, even advanced economies like those of Germany, simply because of scale and long experience.

The best outcome for the US/European alliance would be a more militarily capable Europe still strongly allied with the US. Maybe that was the 4D chess goal, but if so Trump appears to have way overshot it.

The problem I see is that while Europe is waking up to the fact that they need to invest more in defense, they haven't realized yet that they need to build a military that can actually project power if they want to replace/augment the US. That's a different beast. And you are right, no single country in Europe could do that, and it would indeed be very bad if they would try. What has to happen is that Europe, ideally including the UK, comes together to form such a military.

There is absolutely zero real life evidence that anyone can possibly point to that supports the Trump is secretly a genius and is playing 4D chess theory.

I think it’s pretty likely that he is smart enough to try and use “madman theory” to gain his advantage. Whether that plays out to be a good strategy in the long term remains to be seen. However, in the past it has worked to a degree when leaders have utilized it.

I didn't really mean he is doing it on-purpose, 4-D Chess style. Just a thought, he could be achieving the opposite of his desires, and by accident helping Europe?

If Trump does accidentally manage to unite Europe, have them end the Ukraine war, and all without US involvement and spending… he will of course immediately claim full credit.

how about a far target of doing anything possible against China? Abandoning EU (thus pushing them to ramp up) and seemingly siding with Russia if needed.