One nuke and the whole of NATO will back down. To think that we could respond to the limited use of nukes conventionally is extremely naive, and to think that the limited use of nukes can be responded to with a limited use of nukes w/o escalation to global nuclear war is -quite frankly- stupid beyond belief.

My own sense is that Putin waited Biden out to see what might happen in the 2024 elections, and now that Trump is back and conciliatory there is no need for him to escalate to limited nuclear war. And my sense is that Trump understands Putin's limits and that is why Trump is keen to make peace on terms vaguely approaching a complete capitulation to Russia -- for Trump it's not his war anyways, so for him it's not so much capitulation but something that can be sold as another domestic political victory over the Democrats and the Washington establishment.