That's what I keep coming back to. If I were trying to harm American interests, what would I do differently?

Nothing.

Exactly this. And that is such an important intellectual tool, the ability to extrapolate second and third order decisions and match them to people’s incentives lets you create accurate mental models of multiparty negotiations and interactions and predict how people will act in future situations. It’s really powerful.

Applying here, I would expect trump moves to lift sanctions and normalize trade with Russia. Europe, if it has a spine will sanction the US.