I am reasonably confident that "time for the cycle to repeat" is the cycle of purchasing a new drive and moving to it.

Whether that's right or wrong, when I talked about 5% failure chance per cycle that's what I meant. And 5% is probably an underestimate.

Ahh. That % would depend on fleet size. AFR should be under 1% for most drives.

I'm estimating about five years, and the context is a single drive.