(I'm not a grapics programmer, mind you, so please correct any misunderstandings on my end)
It can do an actual branch if the condition ends up the same for the entire workgroup - or to be even more pedantic, for the part of the workgroup that is still alive.
You can also check that explicitly to e.g. take a faster special case branch if possible for the entire workgroup and otherwise a slower general case branch but also for the entire workgroup instead of doing both and then selecting.
What you want is to use smoothstep which blends a bit between these two values and for that you need to compute both paths anyway.
The observation relates to pixel shaders, and even within that, it relates to values that vary based on pixel-level data. In these cases having if statements without any sort of interpolation introduces aliasing, which tends to look very noticeable.
Now you might be fine with that, or have some way of masking it, so it might be fine in your use case, but most in the most common, naive case the issue does show up.
Nobody ever talked about clamping - and it's not even relavant to the discussion as it doesn't introduce discontinuity that can cause aliasing.
What I'm referring to is shader aliasing, which MSAA does nothing about - MSAA is for geometry aliasing.
To illustrate what I'm talking about with, an example that draws a red circle on a quad:
The bad version:
gl_FragColor = vec4(vec3(1.0 - step(0.25, distance(vUv, vec2(0.5)))) * vec3(1.0, 0.0, 0.0), 1.0);
The good version: gl_FragColor = vec4(vec3(1.0 - smoothstep(0.24, 0.25, distance(vUv, vec2(0.5)))) * vec3(1.0, 0.0, 0.0), 1.0);
The first version has a hard boundary for the circle which has an ugly aliased and pixelated contour, while the latter version smooths it. This example might not be egregious, but this can and does show up in some circumstances.This reminds me that people who believe that GPU is not capable of branches do stupid things like writing multiple shaders instead of branching off a shader constant e.g. you have some special mode, say x-ray vision, in a game and instead of doing a branch in your materials, you write an alternative version of every shader.
And the reason for that is the confusing documentation from NVidia and its cg/CUDA compilers. I believe they did not want to scare programmers at first and hid the execution model, talking about "threads" and then they kept using that abstraction to hype up their GPUs ("it has 100500 CUDA threads!"). The result is people coding for GPUs with some bizarre superstitions though.
You actually want branches in the the code. Those are quick. The problem is that you cannot have a branch off a SIMD way so, instead of a branch the compiler will emit code for both branches and the results will be masked out based on the branch's condition.
So, to answer your question - any computation based on shader inputs (vertices, computer shader indices and what not) cannot and won't branch. It will all be executed sequentially with masking. Even in the TFA example, both values of ? operator are computed, the same happens with any conditional on an SIMD value. There can be shortcut branches emitted by the compiler to quickly bypass computations when all ways are the same value but in general case everything will be computed for every condition being true as well as being false.
Only conditionals based on scalar registers (shader constants/unform values) will generate branches and those are super quick.