Re:CIA Now Favors Lab Leak Theory to Explain Covid's Origins
by vcdimension on Sunday January 26, 2025 @07:52AM
(#42829774)
I had a look at Eric Stansifer's write-up of his decision, but I didn't read all of it (83 pages!).
He does seem to have a good understanding of Bayesian decision making and hypothesis testing.
What confuses me however, is his dismissal of two pieces of evidence in table 2 which he says should be ignored "following the presumption that HSM is the first SSE", and yet earlier, in footnote 24, he states "We are very specifically not conditioning on that place being HSM" (talking about the first SSE location).
Can anyone enlighten me about this seeming contradiction?
What confuses me however, is his dismissal of two pieces of evidence in table 2 which he says should be ignored "following the presumption that HSM is the first SSE", and yet earlier, in footnote 24, he states "We are very specifically not conditioning on that place being HSM" (talking about the first SSE location). Can anyone enlighten me about this seeming contradiction?