I'm not saying it's completely random. It's very likely a combination of skill [1] and luck, with luck being the bigger factor. So even if you're "special", you're unlikely to make it.

[1] And possibly contacts, or safety net, or wealthy family and/or friends.

I think there are special circumstances where success, while far from assured, is a lot more likely than usual. Apple and Google probably had decent odds. (Where “decent” here means something like 10%.) But they’re really rare, and honestly and correctly evaluating whether you have an opportunity like that is really hard. I think that’s why a lot of people do startups, anyway.