The US bureaucracy is largely indifferent to changes in administration, though it undoubtedly wields significant influence. The key point is that major policy decisions are made by established bureaucrats in the military, State Department, and other parts of the essential institutional actors. As a result, any country, like China, perceived as a threat to US hegemony will be vigorously fought against.

This is historically true, but likely to change under project 2025

Maybe but there's such a small amount of time between now and the new admin, it couldn't be that difficult to kill the bureaucracy behind it? If had been going to 3-4 years already, sure I can see that.

when new presidents come in the rest of the government employees don’t change as well. some of these at higher levels are career employees who will serve through many presidents. timing your asks to just get approved by an outgoing president can make your future bright

Historically you are correct that only around 4,000 employees of the US federal government are 'political hires' that the President can change/hire/fire. However in October 2020, Trump ordered Schedule F [0] that effectively increases the number of career bureaucrats that could be made by political appointment rather than by a competitive process. The Order was promptly rescinded by the Biden administration in Jan 2021. [1]

The Trump administration said that they believed Schedule F would increase the number of career positions to roughly 50,000 existing jobs. However many think tanks and union members believe that Schedule F could be interpreted much more broadly and could include well over 100,000 positions.

If the Trump administration revives the Schedule F order, it could mean very significant changes for many career bureaucrats.

[0] - https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2020-10-26/pdf/2020-2... [1] - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-action...

sounds like fear mongering, since when this happened previously it had no impact

Fear mongering was certainly not my intention. The simplest explanation for why this didn’t happen during President Trump’s first term was because the order was effective Oct 21st, 2020. Which was less than 2 weeks before President Biden won the popular & electoral vote.

I share your hope that the incoming Trump administration will uphold the usual norms of hiring & firing careers federal employees!

It becomes a default, which, even when it's at the pleasure of the president, substantially increases the chances of it continuing

If any of this ever happens, their party can claim that they did it.

They had put a committee together in case Harris won.

They lost

The committee dumps their report and disbands

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Trump's 1776 commission for redesigning history education released their report days before Biden's inauguration. They published by linking a PDF to the White House website and days later it was gone. Dust in the wind.