Do you have any other sources on that? I would imagine someone replicated this...
And it's not what I'm actually looking for. I'm looking for controlled studies with a falsifiable hypothesis and a detailed section on the study design :)
I've spent some time looking for such studies and I didn't find anything (convincing). So if anyone has something to share, I'd appreciate that
Then once you have sufficient prior data, you'll be able to actually look at the evidence (stuff, academic) if that actually interests you!
Anyone can get 100% accuracy by guessing trivial things that are always true regardless of the nature of the target. Without more information these numbers aren't meaningful
But trivial things that are always true does not describe the information sought by government customers from these programs, to which the above data refer.
> How come nobody can replicate this in less opaque settings?
You can, right now! You can try it yourself, see my other comments in this thread for resources.
Those numbers aren't described with the level of rigor needed to be considered evidence. No examples, no methodology, etc. We don't know what "usable intelligence" means. You have taken the liberty of interpreting that in a particularly generous way.
> You can, right now!
I mean under controlled conditions. Why didn't any of these people in /r/remoteviewing sign up for the JREF $1 million prize? Or at least contact parapsychologists (e.g. Dean Radin or Daryl Bem) who would have been happy to facilitate rigorous public experiments? The best we have from experiments is statistical effects, e.g. guessing a coinflip correctly 51% of the time over large numbers of trials. Not the kind of large, obvious effects that "50% useable intelligence" or "85% accuracy" is hinting at.
So you need to try if you are serious about getting the truth. Think of it like doing the required pre-requisite work to understand a new topic. This is the same.
Why would you enter a competition you believe was a rigged attempt to disprove what you know through first hand experience to be real?
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00788R0011002...
Obviously people lie but a compelling report.
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00788R001100290005-5.pdf
Page 12 (final page)More probably the conclusions from the project manager are positive exaggerations because it would directly benefit from the continuation of the project but let's consider the possibility that RV works! This would be a fantastic evidence of psychic/paranormal phenomena that would make anyone reconsider other paranormal/spiritual claims that we're previously dismissed. Which creates a dilemma because if I'm non-receptive to paranormal phenomena it will not work and there's no point in trying and if I'm receptive then it's unwise because divination is sinful according to the majority of religions.
I imagine there's a "reality" be it real or fictitious where RV and other forms of divination works but ain't widespread enough to be scientifically acknowledged because those really capable of it knows it leads to eternal damnation so they don't practice it or share it publicly. In this same "reality" it's possible that the CIA as other intelligence agencies successfully used divination to acquire intel but discontinued it as they did with Blackbird because nowadays the have much better ways like software backdoors, spy satellites and even OSINT. And to note at best RV produces subjective intel which is non-optimal.
Even so, prohibitions sometimes contain truths: the Jewish one against pork could prevent parasites. What if forbidding psi is similarly well intended? Opening awareness can be gnarly (the yoga and seeker paths in India know this), and it might happen that "when you see them, they see you" adding to difficulties. Even so, many things are difficult at first. But worthwhile things take effort.
That said tho: it's not as if religions are the paragons of virtuous behavior they may wish to be seen as, so it may not do to simply accept prohibitions on faith alone. And remember prohibitions evolve with time, even religious ones. Also, you cannot discount the possibility that not wanting to democratize access to the divine, or even spiritual, is simply about centralizing power and control.
Your point on advances in other collection is well taken tho! But some factual errors require correction: you don't need to be 'receptive to psi' to have it work, just try (unless faith precludes you to, and I don't suggest violating what you believe); also it's not 'subjective' in the sense you want - it's people looking at data, and they're interpreting it. That's the subjectivity, and that's like every analysis ever.
It helps to consider it just another sensor, or sense organ, or skill. It's not supposed to be sole source. It's not pretending to be infallible. Can you sink 100 3 pointers in a row? Not even the best NBA can all the time, every human skill is dynamic and on a bell curve. Regarding philosophical prohibitions, consider like access to data to help you make better choices.
How about an analogy? You are a person looking at a wall. Along the wall walks a caterpillar. It goes from left to right. Standing where you are, you can see its objective. Some tasty leaf sprouting from a gap a few feet away. The caterpillar senses it, but does not see as clearly as you - if for no other reason than your 3D perspective - from on the wall, it can really only grasp a small way in front. What the caterpillar doesn't see is a large vertical crack, impossibly to pass, that breaks its path just ahead. You tho, do see that crack. Because of your perspective. You see the little guy heading towards it, whereas if he just took 30 degrees to the right he'd be able to go around it. From where he is tho, he can't see it. So without the knowledge of another perspective, without other data, the little guy is gonna waste more time. And might even run into trouble in the big crack!
That's like psi. Dive in! Unless your beliefs about risk preclude that - in which case I'd say, be more careful, because those prior beliefs could cause you to have ideas which would get in the way and might be challenging for mental health.
Anywho, thanks for your fun reply! :)
To clarify, for a Christian the issue wouldn't be that doing A is forbid or that the belief of it being wrong would be challenging for mental health. The issue would be simple that doing A is wrong.
I would say it is, because as always with anything on the "para" edge, those who are convinced remain convinced and those who are not keep on saying it's a fraud. This applies to you, dear reader.
I'm not saying that this is impossible, but if it's true, we would have to throw out much - perhaps all - of present day scientific consensus.
One comment I've seen on Reddit seems to offer an alternative explanation:
>RV functions as a kind of precognition-on-demand. Think about it like the opposite of memory. Instead of setting your intention to view information from a memory in the past, you are setting your intention to view information from an experience you will have in the future, which is the act of checking feedback. If you have no real world feedback, then you have no verifiable real world data in your session.
Still outside of mainstream science, but I think there are some theories of quantum mechanics where the future can affect the past? If that were the case, being informed that the target was "Mars, 1 million years ago" might inspire one to come up with a narrative like that and transmit it to your past self?
Personally, I have no idea what the theory is, but it's an interesting question. I guess it might be beyond the reach of our current theoretical understandings to explain it. Which, from the point of view of advancing understanding of reality, makes it particularly interesting data - that you can obtain at no cost yourself.
I guess we wouldn't have to discard our consensus, but rather see present understanding from a more rigorously (and purely) "Scientific" point of view: as mere temporary models, beads in a evolving chain of understanding, to be discarded and adapted (not worshipped or imposed). That's true science. Maybe our coherent predictive theories represent a good description of "top layer" physical reality, but fail to describe a possible "substrate layer" where consciousness an information play integral roles. In a like way to how physical properties and descriptions change when moving media, from air to water, or space.
PEAR lab research "retrocausality" (fairly conclusively showing that future image stimulus could affect present biosigns). I think that's another effect of the underlying thing, but it's not the whole thing. How can you view the past? How can RV work when no "remote human" is involved?
Hm, I wouldn't say RV is controversial - only possibly in the sense that heliocentrism was controversial in the 15th and 16th centuries: i.e., to the folks who had not been exposed to the data showing the Earth orbits the Sun. Specifically tho, this sentiment and similar in other comments, are common misrepresentations or misconceptions. Here are the key stats from the same ("Stargate") document archives - by 1983:
50% does not mean the "success rate was chance", because the odds of randomly producing actionable intelligence for a mission based solely off an opaque 6 digit number (ie, the "Coordinate" in Coordinate RV), are far lower than 50% of the time. These stats are from a FOIA'd briefing transcript by Lt. Col Buzby, the Project Manager of INSCOM (United States Army Intelligence and Security Command) RV project "CENTER LANE". The full quote is:In summary, over the past 5 years INSCOM has conducted 89 collection projects for a number of different US government agencies. Our successes must be examined from two perspectives. (Chart change) Over 85% of our operational missions have produced accurate target information. Even more significant, approximately 50% of the 700 missions produced usable intelligence.
More context: "Stargate" was the program name for the final declassified RV program which absorbed many previous programs such as Center Lane (early 80s), Grill Flame, etc.More facts: Hal Puthoff has suggested in a recent interview with Eric Weinstein and Jesse Michels that the RV programs were not discontinued when declassified in 1995, but rather "went dark" (became unacknowledged special access programs). The "debunking" report accompanying the 1995 declassification was most likely ritual cover for this.