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A comment on Show HN: Predicting the winner of the US Presidential Election. Parent comment

Re:Show HN: Predicting the winner of the US Presidential Ele... by sendos on Tuesday July 10, 2012 @11:48AM (#4224358)
Does this always work? If you think that company X should be valued at $10 billion, but is currently valued at $5 billion because the market is being irrational, are you claiming that it's always a safe bet to invest in this company? Are you claiming that in the long term the market becomes rational and will surely value the company at the value you think it is worth?
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Re:Show HN: Predicting the winner of the US Presidential Ele... by abbasmehdi on Wednesday July 11, 2012 @03:40AM (#4228257)
You're missing your parent commenter's point. He/she means to say if more people are wrong then the odds are stacked higher against the candidate you expect to win therefore the payout in favor of your candidate would be higher. Sorry I think my comment is even more confusing but I hope you arrive at this conclusion anyway.
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