If this is confusing people on HN, think what it will be like for consumers since the two devices look very similar. Imagine trying to explain to someone that their laptop can't run software X that someone else's otherwise identical (or near enough) laptop can because "it has an ARM chip not an intel one".
Instead of saying " Supports Windows 8 " , non metro software will now have to say " Supports Windows8* "
I wonder how many developers will bother with metro since we already have a bewilderingly huge choices of platforms to support with our software, including "Just give up and do a web app".
Will anyone develop software? I'm sure they will for one definite reason - hope. Lots of folks in the ecosystem with skills in ms tool chain etc. who will prospectively develop stuff. But key developers will only ship stuff if the platform is successful.
Windows 8 is certainly a sign that MS is steering in the right direction. Its income base isn't disappearing immediately, so it may have the time to do its usual thing of getting it good enough in version 3. Windows 8 seems close enough that MS might even have it right by version 2.
Here is where I think Microsoft may have screwed the pooch:
* Orphaning WP7.
* Possibly orphaning/pissing off its third party partners. (When will they give up their abusive relationship?)