Yes, on the margins cycling is more dangerous in the USA. OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised if the physical exercise would reduce mortality enough to still be a net positive on the margins - biking to the bakery vs driving - but haven't verified that.

Interesting tidbit from the report is that almost 50% of fatalities are in towns <100k population, 16% outside towns and 34% in pop centers > 100k. I would have guessed metro areas are more dangerous.

There is no country in which cycling is safer than driving. Even in the Netherlands, the fatality rate is 13 deaths per billion miles. For comparison, the Netherlands has 3 deaths per billion miles by car.

I still think it's not useful to compare fatalities per billion miles, especially cycling and driving (and especially if that includes highway driving, which is clearly not something you could use a bike for instead).

Iceland had several years with zero or one reported cycling fatalities, I can't find road fatalities quickly but I assume driving is less safe there, especially if I'm allowed to cherry-pick a zero-fatality year (where you'd have 0 fatalities per billion miles cycled).

It's the other way around, overwhelmingly so:

"With 290 cyclist fatalities in 2022, cyclists were the largest group of road casualties." [1]

"Cycling prevents about 6500 deaths each year, and Dutch people have half-a-year-longer life expectancy because of cycling. These health benefits correspond to more than 3% of the Dutch gross domestic product. Our study confirmed that investments in bicycle-promoting policies (e.g., improved bicycle infrastructure and facilities) will likely yield a high cost–benefit ratio in the long term." [2]

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That's just the big picture though, I suspect your statistics are wrong directly as well. Cycling deaths are very skewed towards the elderly [3], so it appears that if you're under 50, cycling is statistically safer than driving, no matter how you look at it.

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[1]: https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2023/11/...

[2]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4504332/

[3]: https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/0... (https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2024/03/06/cycling-safety...)

For a more fair comparison you should discount highway miles from the car stats. That's the safest form of driving there is, and accounts for a very large fraction of miles, but doesn't represent the kind of journey you would be cycling, anyway. Comparing just car journeys you could make with a bike would be a better comparison.