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A comment on Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency. Parent comment

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by rightbyte on Thursday November 07, 2024 @04:32AM (#42075132)
> Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz.

A pick of VP is not easy to model as some sort of stochastic variable from sample data.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by dredmorbius on Thursday November 07, 2024 @05:39AM (#42075471)
Of course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples.

<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220>

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by rightbyte on Thursday November 07, 2024 @06:20AM (#42075695)
Ahhh, sorry, somehow I thought you meant the two Vice President candidates as the 'cherries being picked'.

Not the two betting examples.

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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by dredmorbius on Thursday November 07, 2024 @06:56AM (#42075880)
No, I'm referring to the blinkered focus on two specific instances of prediction.

Again: a systemic review is required, and I've linked some of the extant literature.

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