Re:Learning Not to Trust the All-In Podcast in Ten Minutes
by xmprt on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @03:23PM
(#42068758)
> Chamath mistaking 0.85 absolute as 0.85 relative is fairly easy to do.
I would disagree. If you're actually looking at the data, then anyone with a high school education should know that you don't take percentages of percentages like this. I still think it's ignorance more than malice, but I can't trust someone who would make a simple mistake like this to prove a point. I need my sources of information to at least be unbiased in how they view facts of data.
You can represent those facts differently. For example, he might think that 30% of growth being tied to government spending is high and I can follow his reasoning based on that. However if he claims that the actual figure is 85% then the starting point itself is incorrect.
Re:Learning Not to Trust the All-In Podcast in Ten Minutes
by 27153 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:52PM
(#42067321)
The order of magnitude of his mistake makes it damning. Especially considering he began his commentary by noting that "the data can be confusing"
Re:Learning Not to Trust the All-In Podcast in Ten Minutes
by nerdponx on Thursday November 07, 2024 @02:04AM
(#42074232)
"Data is hard, let me interpret it for you" is specifically crafted to get people to trust the speaker ("wow this guy understands data I better listen") and discourage independent corroboration ("I don't want to look at it myself if it's hard and I'm likely to misinterpret, best leave that to an expert").
Re:Learning Not to Trust the All-In Podcast in Ten Minutes
by alexanderchr on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:35PM
(#42070597)
Sure - it's an easy mistake to make if you are dealing with data that don't mean anything to you. But anyone with even a tiny bit of experience reading macroeconomic data should be able to tell that something is very off with that number and question it before parrotting it in a podcast.
Chamath mistaking 0.85 absolute as 0.85 relative is fairly easy to do.
Even the critique's interpretation is very shallow -- things like second order effects, like the fiscal multiplier contribution, aren't considered. But macro is an art more than a science, and what people interpret as 'true' depends immensely on their assumptions about how the world actually works.