Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency
by dredmorbius on Thursday November 07, 2024 @01:49AM
(#42074144)
Sources:
Voting returns: <https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/>
Polling data: <https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/>
- Harris did more poorly than forecast in all but three races: DC, UT, and NE-1.
- Her opponent did better than forecast in 32 races.
- Many of Harris's bigger under-performances were in races she won, notably CA. FL and TX are losses with far worse-than-polled returns.
Net average polling bias is 2.68 points favouring the GOP across 56 contests.