humans greatly over estimate trends short-term, and greatly under estimate it long-term .

Tesla might not have managed to do it, but Waymo had over 7.1 million miles driven by their driverless cars by 2023: https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/20/24006712/waymo-driverles...

I'm still waiting for the future where a robot maid does my dishes, hangs my clothes, tidies and vacuums my apartment while I'm working on my piano skills. But at least I now have a robot vacuum with a camera that avoids whatever toys I forgot to pick up.

It might not be perfect yet but my huble Model 3 drove me to a doctor appointment all by itself from my driveway last week. I would say it's pretty damn impressive the kind of progress they were able to make.

Tesla gave out free trials of their self driving upgrade this month. I didn't buy it initially because of the grandiose claims that never seemed to materialize, but I've actually been pretty impressed with the trial. I still don't think it's worth it, but my Model Y has driven itself (with my close supervision of course) to a number of destinations I've keyed into the navigation, without me having to intervene.

There's also lots of times I have had to intervene, but we're closer than we are far, at this point, I think.

So I think your take here is a bit outdated. It was good a couple years ago, though.

Let me guess, you're in the US along one of the hardcoded routes?

I'm in the US, yes. But I feel like my small Indiana town is always behind the times, so I'd be surprised if anything about it was hardcoded for me.