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A comment on Terence Tao on AI as a monopoly held by one or two companies. Parent comment
> 2. Assuming it's rigged, how likely it's rigged in a way that the percentage is precisely XX.X%
But I didn't realize he wrote a blog post about it. He actually addressed everything I listed (and more) in detail:
https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-...
TL;DR: Yes, we need to know all these priori probabilities to get the exact answer. He made an assumption about them.
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> 2. Assuming it's rigged, how likely it's rigged in a way that the percentage is precisely XX.X%
But I didn't realize he wrote a blog post about it. He actually addressed everything I listed (and more) in detail:
https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/what-are-the-odds-...
TL;DR: Yes, we need to know all these priori probabilities to get the exact answer. He made an assumption about them.