OpenAI Completes Deal That Values Company at $157B

Re:OpenAI Completes Deal That Values Company at $157B by Retric on Wednesday October 02, 2024 @05:41PM (#41725235)

Training costs scale to infinite users making them a perfect moat even if they need to keep updating it. Success would be 10-100x current users at which point training costs at the current scale just don’t matter.

Really their biggest risk is total compute costs falling too quickly or poor management.

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Re:OpenAI Completes Deal That Values Company at $157B by ac29 on Wednesday October 02, 2024 @08:11PM (#41726121)

WSJ reported today that ChatGPT has 250M weekly users. 10x that would be nearly the the majority of internet users. 100x that would be significantly more than the population of Earth.

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Re:OpenAI Completes Deal That Values Company at $157B by Retric on Wednesday October 02, 2024 @09:47PM (#41726555)

Someone can be a direct user, be on some companies corporate account, and an indirect user via 3rd parties using OpenAI on their backend.

As long as we’re talking independent revenue streams it’s worth counting separately from an investment standpoint.

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Re:OpenAI Completes Deal That Values Company at $157B by lxgr on Wednesday October 02, 2024 @06:19PM (#41725480)

The potential user base seems quite finite to me, even under most optimistic assumptions.

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Re:OpenAI Completes Deal That Values Company at $157B by Retric on Wednesday October 02, 2024 @07:36PM (#41725939)

Not everyone is going to pay 20$/month, but an optimistic trajectory is they largely replace search engines while acting as a back end for a huge number of companies.

I don’t think it’s very likely, but think of it like an auction. In a room with 100 people 99 of them should think the winner overpaid. In general most people should feel a given startup was overvalued and only looking back will some of these deals look like a good investment.

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