Which chart are you referencing exactly? How does it define technological development? It's nearly impossible for me to discuss a chart without knowing what axis refer.
Without specifics all I can say is that I don't acknowledge any measurable benefits of AI (in its' current state) in real world applications. So I'd say I am leaning towards latter.
That's no guarantee that AI continues advancing at the same pace, and no one has been arguing against overall technological progress slowing
Refining technology is easier than the original breakthrough, but it doesn't usually lead to a great leap forward.
LLMs were the result of breakthroughs, but refining them isn't guaranteed to lead to AGI. It's not guaranteed (or likely) to improve at an exponential rate.
Seems like the base case here is for the exponential growth to continue, and you'd need a convincing argument to say otherwise.