>Yes, this is obviously the sort of adversary we would be discussing.

OP explicitly asked about himself, not some government organisation.

>causing your number to be an underestimate

Not necessarily. It might even be an overestimate if the attacker fails to supply enough nodes of the right kind.

>So almost certainly thousands of people

We're talking about a targeted attack. Of course the statistics game works better when you don't target specific people and just fish randomly. But there are probably more cost effective methods as well.

> We're talking about a targeted attack

From OP: " I can't target a specific person, but eventually I can find someone who has all three bounces through tor nodes I control, no"

> Not necessarily. It might even be an overestimate if the attacker fails to supply enough nodes of the right kind.

Assuming they match the existing distribution of nodes, they will only have better results.

That's assuming a lot given the rest of the statement.