As a concrete example, the last big Israel-Lebanon war resulted from the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a border raid; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War
I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though.
> That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like.
This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point.
> I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).
They sure don't seem motivated to stop, if Israel's pre-planned response is still fratricide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive
I mean, that's the pretty standard response in this conflict. Permanent tit-for-tat, back-and-forth, for decades/millennia depending on how broadly you count things. For a concrete example, Iran's April strikes.
> What do you think constitutes a major escalation?
Terror attacks on Israeli assets abroad - I'd be keeping embassies/consulates on alert - and rocket strikes against Israel. At least enough to try to save face, although the Iranian strikes offer a "good luck" for that.
> I would happily bet against a ground invasion.
By Hezbollah? Well, yeah.