The circumstances are a bit different from SGI and HP; Microsoft couldn't care less if SGI or HP sank, Windows already had a near-stranglehold on the market and there was no shortage of companies willing to produce Windows boxes. Now, WP is seriously behind in the market and they desperately need a first-tier vendor dedicated to them (Huawei is relatively unknown, HTC is struggling, and Samsung's are an afterthought to the money-printing Android based SGS line), so Microsoft needs Nokia's clout as much as Nokia needs MS's cash. Even assuming treachery, Nokia's worst case here is more then likely getting bought vs. being left for dead like SGI.

... Microsoft has recently disclosed that they are producing tablets. Phones are a short stride away. I don't think Microsoft is going to treat Nokia any better than SGI in the long run.

> Nokia's worst case here is more then likely getting bought vs. being left for dead like SGI.

... for 10% what they were worth at the time Elop gave the "burning platform" speech.

SGI was technically bought as well. That's really a bad resolution for Nokia, and is far from being a "worst case". If MS decides to produce phones themselves, it is likely Nokia will be left to whither and die.

It might look unlikely now, but unless you were in the know, just a month ago it seemed very unlikely that MS will make their own tablets.

Despite the internal similarities, it's much more difficult to get a cell phone on the market vs. a tablet. Unless you want to be resigned to the sidelines, you have to be able to convince the carriers to sell your phone. This is very difficult unless you:

a) already have a good relationship with the carriers

b) have someone like Steve Jobs

Nokia at least has (a), Microsoft has neither (Verizon likely still has enough Kin that they won't be hurting for paperweights for quite a while). Microsoft can't afford to kill their only guaranteed in with the carriers.

Nokia has a) only outside North America. In the extremely important US market, which makes or breaks smartphones, Nokia is a nobody. Part of the reasoning in shifting to WP was that Microsoft (or at least the power of their brand) would have delivered that relationship to the Finns. The fact that it didn't happen is quite telling.

Why would they care about Nokia's survival? Frankly, it's even better for Microsoft if Nokia fails - they'll be able to acquire whatever's left for a tiny fraction of its value before going WP7.

Also, another parallel is Palm. They had PalmOS phones when they partnered with Microsoft and made the Treo WinMo line that ended up competing and reducing their own offering's relevance.