> Another way to look at it: Intel market cap is 83B, AMD's market cap is 228B. Do you think Intel is expected to make 1/3 of the money AMD is going to make in coming decades? I see no reason to be as optimistic.
Nit: market cap is not earnings. That's stock price * shares outstanding.
This year's earnings looks like this:
Intel, 3 months ended: Jun 29, 2024
> Net income (loss) (1,654)
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1704/...
AMD, 3 months ended: June 29, 2024
> Net income (loss) $ 265
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1209/am...
So Intel lost 1654M and AMD earned 265M. This only makes your point stronger.
Yeah but market cap is at least in theory about how much money a company is going to make in the future. Not this year, not the next year but decades is already pretty close (because of the discounting).
No it’s not. It has no theoretical relationship with future earnings at all, and even if it did, that theory would be silly.
Intel's revenue is 54B to AMD 22B. If Intel's CPU division was spun off, I see little reason to believe AMD deserves a 3x premium to that - and you get IFS with Intel as well right now!
Granted, IFS is the millstone hanging around their neck right now, unless they can fix it.
Intel still has 75% of data center market share (for CPUs). I think this is mainly momentum and they will lose most of it in coming years.
To add to that, AMD's has the more lucrative higher-margin part of that market.
Why focus on revenue instead of income? Regardless of what Intel’s revenue is, they’re losing money. AMD is earning.
Another way to look at it: Intel market cap is 83B, AMD's market cap is 228B. Do you think Intel is expected to make 1/3 of the money AMD is going to make in coming decades? I see no reason to be as optimistic.